Democrats seem thrilled now that Vice President Kamala Harris has replaced Joe Biden as their likely presidential nominee. Donations are pouring in, endorsements are piling up, and it’s now Republicans, not Democrats, who have to grapple with an elderly presidential nominee.

This fresh start for Democrats, however, doesn’t alleviate a problem Harris inherits from Biden: Voters associate the Biden administration and Democrats in general with the high inflation of the last two years.

And there’s no easy way for Harris to wash her hands of it.

Forecasting firm Oxford Economics updated its election forecast after Biden dropped out of the race and found that economic factors still favor Republican nominee Donald Trump. “We still think that swing voters will vote on pocketbook issues, namely their perception of inflation,” economist Bernard Yaros wrote in the July 22 analysis. “The vice president will likely drive renewed enthusiasm and attract greater fundraising, but for now, she still seems to carry the same baggage as Biden. Former President Donald Trump is still the favorite to win.”

Oxford bases its election model on approval ratings for the incumbent — which applies to Biden and Harris both — and on economic factors in the swing states likely to determine who wins in November. Inflation has dropped sharply from its recent peak, which was 9% in 2022. It’s now at 3%, which is close to normal levels. But most of the price hikes of the last two years are still there, raising price levels for staples such as food on a more or less permanent basis.

The Oxford analysis includes three scenarios for how voters think about inflation when choosing whom to vote for. In the “sticker shock” model, voters focus on cumulative price changes during the Biden-Harris administration — which is bearish for Democrats. In that model, the Republican challenger would win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and other key sting states, more than enough cushion to clinch an electoral college victory.

If voters focus instead on the rate of change in prices, that favors Democrats, since they’d get credit for the sharp drop in inflation. In that scenario, Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona and narrowly lands the presidency.

The best scenario for Harris would be if voters focus on real earnings. Incomes, adjusted for inflation, fell for most of 2022. But they turned positive again in 2023, and since then Americans have been regaining lost purchasing power. If that’s how voters think about inflation, Harris wins by a bit more than if voters are thinking about inflation rates.