Dismal start to earnings season becomes market driver

While the contentious presidential race and the Fed have dominated headlines, it turns out company earnings—and commentary from management teams—may return to being more of a market driver.

And the kick-off hasn’t been too pretty.

Alcoa (AA) unofficially marked the start of third-quarter earnings on Tuesday morning. And it wasn’t the company’s miss-versus-expectations that had broader market implications, it was commentary from CEO Klaus Kleinfeld about the source of weakness.

Specifically, the company disappointed relative to heightened investor expectations for the company’s value-add aerospace and auto components business, known as its “Arconic” segments. The company will separate this business from its upstream commodity aluminum and alumina business next month.

Arconic segment revenues declined by 1%, which reflects “customer adjustments of the delivery schedules in the aerospace industry, softness in the North American commercial transportation market, pricing pressures,” according to Kleinfeld. He went on to explain that the aerospace industry is undergoing transition, reflecting uncertainty.

This followed negative announcements from other industrial companies.

Honeywell (HON), the diversified industrial company that makes aerospace components and climate control systems businesses, cut its sales projections last Thursday, as CEO Dave Cote cited delays and Goldman Sachs removed the company from its conviction buy list after the announcement. Shares declined 8% on Friday.

Also at the end of last week, chemical company PPG (PPG) also fell over 8% after pre-announcing it expects to report a third-quarter loss, its first since 2009.

“We are disappointed with this quarter’s EPS growth rate as we continue to operate in a sluggish economic environment with no clear near-term catalyst for improving global GDP growth,” CEO Michael McGarry said in the company’s press release.

This Monday, Dover Corporation (DOV) also pre-announced a disappointing number. The manufacturer of refrigeration systems, compression valves and artificial lifts said results were “well below our expectations.” CEO Robert Livingston added that “results were principally impacted by a weak global economy and ongoing production inefficiencies in our retail refrigeration business.”

The carnage extended to the healthcare sector when Illumina (ILMN), which makes DNA sequencing machines, issued a revenue warning on Monday, potentially suggesting a slowing of core business. Sparse on details, investors punished the company, sending shares down 25% on Tuesday. This further put a damper on the sector that has been under pressure from political rhetoric surrounding pricing.

Expectations do remain low for earnings results, with S&P 500 companies expected to post a fifth consecutive quarter of earnings contraction, continuing the so-called “earnings recession.” However, commentary on the underlying macro environment from management teams—along with forward guidance—will be a key driver of investment sentiment.

With expectations for a November rate hike now hovering at a low 10%, trading moves around economic data and Fed commentary has become more muted, emphasizing a waiting game until a potential rate hike in December. Meanwhile, mixed market reaction to potential election outcomes continues—save for the Mexican peso.

That means more focus on earnings and commentary on the underlying economy from management teams. And so far it’s not looking too good.

Please also see:

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HBS’ Michael Porter: The biggest economic myths from the debate

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