We recently compiled a list of the 8 Most Profitable Small-Cap Stocks To Invest In.In this article, we are going to take a look at where Donnelley Financial Solutions Inc. (NYSE:DFIN) stands against the other profitable small-cap stocks.
Fed's rate cuts have been all the rage recently, and they may have set the stage for a strong Q4. On September 27, Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets and long-term member of the New York Stock Exchange, filled in for Michael Reinking on Market Storylines inside the Icehouse Podcast feed to discuss the Fed rate cuts and outlook for Q4 2024. He said the market has absorbed rate cuts very positively, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs.
He also said that historically, the fourth quarter tends to perform well when markets hit new highs in September. This holds especially true in election years. With the stock market now in Q4, Woods highlighted that certain sectors, like utilities, real estate, and industrials, led the market in Q3. Technology, however, lagged in Q3 and might make a comeback in Q4.
On October 4, Eduardo Lecubarri, managing director and global head of small and mid-cap equity strategy at J.P. Morgan, talked about the potential of investing in small to mid-cap stocks in an interview on CNBC. He breaks down the opportunities in the space, while shedding light on how to pick the right stocks in what he calls a "generational opportunity." He says that we are living in a tricky world where the opportunity to invest lies in realizing the hidden value in the small and mid-cap sectors and picking the right stocks instead of investing broadly.
Analysts are thus bullish on the potential of small caps, with the general expectation that they might outperform large caps in a slowing economy. However, with the US Presidential elections just around the corner, the market environment is posing some choppiness, which demands caution from investors.
Why Are Analysts Keeping an Eye on Small Caps?
On October 4, Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, joins CNBC’s ‘The Exchange’ to discuss why he’s keeping an eye on small caps in certain sectors. He said that lower interest rates are expected to benefit small caps, especially the Russell 2000, thus promoting the perspective that the bull market will continue. With the risk of recession now overruled, the economy is moving closer to soft landing. Adam concludes that with the Fed continuing to lower interest rates, small cap stocks will be better positioned to meet their financial needs.
These stocks get around 56% of their financing from the short end of the yield curve, which refers to the short-term interest rate on the yield curve. This typically represents the yields on bonds with shorter maturities, such as 2-year or 5-year Treasury notes. Large-cap companies, in contrast, get only 26% of their financing from these short ends of the curve. Small-caps are thus in a better position to benefit.
The Fed is anticipated to cut rates two times in 2024 and another four times in 2025, reflecting a positive market for small-caps. These stocks have also outperformed large caps. When taken in a historical context, circumstances help small caps significantly more than the rest of the market whenever the economy goes towards a soft landing.
Small Caps and a Late Cycle Economy
On October 11, CNBC’s Mike Santoli and Northwestern Mutuals’ Brent Schutte, appeared on 'Power Lunch.' He said that there is a delicate balancing act that the Fed has to navigate, and historically, haven't done a good job doing so. They tend to wait till the labor market shows signs of weakening, and unfortunately, it tends to trend and then its too late. He says that this time is a little different because there is inflation and the embers are burning, and this is a late cycle economy.
With the late cycle phase of the economy, concerns about the shift from large cap stocks to small caps is rising. Schutte says that such concerns were also heard in 1999 and 2000, years that had a similar market. The market became very narrow because the economy became very narrow.
He says that one way or the other, for investors more interested in returns over a three to five year period, small and mid caps stocks, irrespective of whether a soft landing appears or not, offer value because they have been priced, somewhat, for a recession.
Our Methodology
For this article, we used Finviz and Yahoo Finance stock screeners plus online rankings to compile an initial list of the 60 largest small-caps. We define small-cap stock to be those with market caps between $300 million and around $2 billion. Please note that the market caps were recorded on 17th October, 2024. From that list, we narrowed our choices to 8 stocks with positive TTM net income and 5-year net income growth informed by reputable sources, including SeekingAlpha and Yahoo Finance. We then sorted the stocks in ascending order of their hedge fund sentiment, which was taken from our 912 elite hedge funds database as of Q2 of 2024.
Why do we care about what hedge funds do? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter's strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A woman in a suit and tie on a platform, speaking to shareholders about the latest contract analysis and SEC compliance solutions.
Donnelley Financial Solutions Inc. (NYSE:DFIN) provides software and technology-enabled financial regulatory and compliance solutions. It offers regulatory filing and deal solutions through its technology-enabled services, software, and print and distribution solutions.
Donnelley Financial Solutions (NYSE:DFIN) showed improved revenue performance in its Q2 2024 results, with record adjusted EBITDA margin and quarterly adjusted EBITDA and increases in both free cash flow and operating cash flow. This improved performance highlights the company's continued progress in its transformation, positioning it to achieve its long-term financial targets.
The company is continually making progress against its long-term objectives. It is transforming DFIN into a solution-centric company often delivered by software, with software solutions net sales increasing 14.4% on an organic basis year over year. This shows a continuation of the strong growth rate it attained in Q1 of 2024. The Q2 software solutions net sales growth continues to be driven by the performance of Venue, its virtual data room product. It posted approximately 38% sales growth, reflecting a strong sales execution across Venue's broad application within the M&A ecosystem serving both private and public companies.
The growth rates of ActiveDisclosure and Arc Suite, which are Donnelley Financial Solutions’ (NYSE:DFIN) recurring compliance software products, also showed positive signs in Q2 and are set to improve in the second half of 2024. Improvement for ActiveDisclosure is driven by recent wins along with overlapping 2023's platform transition. The improved growth rate for Arc Suite is primarily driven by the tailwind from the Tailored Shareholder Reports regulation. Donnelley Financial Solutions (NYSE:DFIN) ranks third on our list of the 8 most profitable small-cap stocks to invest in.
Overall DFIN ranks 3rd on our list of the most profitable small-cap stocks to invest in. While we acknowledge the potential of DFIN as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than DFIN but trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
