Shareholders might have noticed that Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE:OSK) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.7% to US$103 in the past week. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$2.7b coming in 2.8% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$2.75, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Oshkosh

Taking into account the latest results, the 13 analysts covering Oshkosh provided consensus estimates of US$10.4b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a small 2.3% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 2.7% to US$10.72. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$10.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.21 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$120, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Oshkosh at US$160 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$95.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.8% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.8% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.0% per year. It's pretty clear that Oshkosh's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.