Lucy Harley-McKeown
FTSE 100, European and US stocks mixed as key inflation data looms
How major markets are performing on Monday
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The FTSE 100 and European markets headed into the green on Monday before ending the day mixed, as new forecasts show UK inflation is expected to pick up again. US stocks were mixed as traders head into a big week of data.
The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) rose 0.6%, while Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) was up 0.1% and the CAC (^FCHI) was down 0.2% at the closing bell.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 (^STOXX) was also 0.1% higher.
Across the pond the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) popped about 0.2% and 0.4% respectively by mid-morning. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was lower by 0.3%.
Looking ahead to the UK's inflation print on Wednesday, forecasters have suggested the data will show the gauge ticked up to 2.3% from the Bank of England's target rate of 2%, Bloomberg reported, citing its survey of economists.
The forecasted moves upward follow a rate cut by Threadneedle Street at its last meeting, down to 5% from 5.25%. The Bank has been at pains to stress it will only cut rates if low levels of inflation are sustained — the reduction on 1 August was its first rate cut in four years.
Wednesday also provides a fresh look at the state of inflation in the US with the latest release of the Consumer Price Index. Then Thursday comes with two key signals on the state of the US consumer — a reading on July's retail sales and Walmart (WMT) earnings.
Wall Street once again sees good news as good news, so its volatility this week may depend on the signals those data introduce.
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Oil prices rise on continued Middle East tension
Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at online trading platform IG said:
Oil has surged to its highest level in over a week as expectations of an Iranian strike on Israel rise once more. The risk had appeared to recede last week, or at least had been pushed back, but an attack is on the cards once more, powering oil’s move higher from last week’s two-month low.”
And here's the chart:
FTSE 100 fallers
FTSE 100 gainers
BT remains atop the FTSE well into the afternoon
How US stocks are faring at the open
Stocks to watch at the US opening bell: Home Depot
Shares in the home improvement retailer were higher in pre-market trading, with the company set to announce quarterly results on 13 August.
The group is expected to post slight declines in sales and profits from the same time last year, as inflation-weary consumers have pulled back on big-ticket spending for home improvement projects.
Analysts expect Home Depot's second-quarter sales to come in at $42.57bn, coming down from $42.92bn a year ago. Net income is projected to drop to $4.48bn, compared to $4.66bn in the second quarter of fiscal 2023.
JPMorgan said the retailer could join other companies lowering their guidance this earnings season.
"Given the uneven backdrop and the prospect of the election and shortened holiday season, we expect guidance reductions to broadly continue, in varying degrees," JPMorgan analysts wrote about the retail industry.
Currently, Home Depot’s stock is roughly flat for the year, signalling a period of stagnation.
Bitcoin dips, extending selloff
Bitcoin extended losses on Monday following a dip at the weekend. A 4% dip took the world's largest cryptocurrency to around $58,700 to the dollar.
Last week, amid volatile markets across the world, the asset was range bound, bouncing between the $50,000 and $60,000 mark.
Investors have been pulling out of riskier assets in recent weeks amid shaky data in the US, where a jobs report the week before last missed expectations by some margin. The data suggests the Federal Reserve could have waited too long to cut interest rates and kick the economy into action.
Inflation could still be stoked by wage growth -- BoE policymaker
There are more inflation warnings from Bank of England policymakers this morning. Rate setter Catherine Mann said in an interview she is concerned that inflation could be on the rise again amid evidence of wage growth — a measure which could also push up prices.
Mann told the FT that, even though inflation has come down to the bank's 2% target, the UK should avoid being "seduced" into thinking that it will stay low.
The issue of wage growth could be "a problem for next year" she added.
Mann has been one of the more cautious members of the monetary policy committee, having been one of the rate setters who voted to keep the base rate at 5.25% in the last meeting.
Adani dips
From Yahoo Finance UK's Pedro Goncalves:
Stocks in Adani Enterprises slumped by over 7% after the US short-seller Hindenburg Research alleged that the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch and her husband had undisclosed investments in an offshore fund structure used by Vinod Adani, brother of Adani Group founder Gautam Adani.
The report suggests that SEBI’s lack of action against the Adani Group, despite evidence of fraudulent practices, could be due to Buch’s involvement in these funds.
“Madhabi Buch and her husband had stakes in a multi-layered offshore fund structure with minuscule assets, traversing known high-risk jurisdictions, overseen by a company with reported ties to the Wirecard scandal, in the same entity run by an Adani director and significantly used by Vinod Adani in the alleged Adani cash siphoning scandal,” the report added, according to local media.
Hindenburg Research has called for further investigation into these allegations. The firm has pledged to donate any proceeds derived from the report to causes that support free expression.
SEBI has yet to make public findings from several long-running probes into the Adani Group after India’s Supreme Court in January ordered it to wind up the investigations within three months.
Buch and her husband issued a statement calling Hindenburg's report as an attack on the credibility of SEBI and attempted "character assassination".
Adani Energy Solutions (ADANIENSOL.NS) plunged as much as 17% before paring the bulk of the loss, with all but one of the conglomerate’s 10 stocks trading lower.
See more Trending Tickers here.
BT top FTSE riser as it sells 25% stake
BT is the top riser in the FTSE 100 this morning following news that Indian conglomerate Bharti Enterprises is set to be its largest shareholder. The company agreed to buy 24.5% of BT's shares, adding it wouldn't make an offer to buy the whole company.
The group said in a statement to the London Stock Exchange that the deal is “a vote of confidence in the UK as an attractive global destination for investment, with a stable business and policy environment attractive for long-term investors”.
It bought the stake from billionaire Patrick Drahi’s Altice.
Stock rose around 6.7% in morning trade following the announcement.
Asian trading hours
Stock indices on Monday performed less dramatically than they have over recent weeks, making small moves as traders ease into the summer months.
The Nikkei (^N225), which whipsawed more than 12% lower, before regaining ground last week rose 0.6%.
Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng (^HSI) ticked up 0.1%. The SSE Composite (000001.SS) was 0.1% lower.
And here's what US stocks are doing in premarket trade
Friday trade in the US
From our US team:
A volatile week of trading action on Wall Street saw the stock market finish the week just about where it left off last Friday.
Panic hit financial markets on Monday as the unwinding of the yen carry trade spiked volatility after investors rapidly moved to price in higher odds of a recession and further easing from the Federal Reserve following last week's July jobs report.
In the latter part of the week, markets course-corrected as new data on weekly unemployment benefits cooled fears that the US economy was rapidly spiraling toward a downturn.
The whipsaw action left stocks nearly flat on the week despite opening Monday sharply in the red. For the week, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was almost exactly unchanged, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell less than 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.6%. On Monday alone, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell more than 3%.
Good morning!
Hello from London. Lucy Harley-Mckeown here ready to bring you the news du jour in markets and beyond. In terms of data today:
In the UK, there's fresh wage data slated for later today, which will give a better read on inflation overall.
The ILO unemployment rate is also on the calendar for Tuesday.
Markets will also look to the monthly OPEC report for information on oil prices.
It's a less busy week in terms of company reports. Let's get to it.
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