In This Article:
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On Polymarket, Kamala Harris' odds of winning the U.S. presidential election have increased from 33% on Oct. 30 to nearly 39%. Donald Trump's have dropped 61%.
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The increase in Harris' odds might be due to traders hedging their bets, with trades above $10,000 suggesting both large bets on Harris and strategic trading to protect against a Trump loss.
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Reports of voting irregularities against Trump could be influencing market bets.
The odds on Democrat candidate Kamala Harris winning next week's U.S. presidential election are rising on betting platform Polymarket, with some observers suggesting the increase reflects hedging positions among traders who've also bet on a victory for her Republican rival, Donald Trump.
Harris’ odds have risen to almost 39% from 33% on Oct. 30. Trump's odds dropped in tandem, suggestive of lower expectations of him winning, though at 61%, he's still the preferred candidate. Some market watchers attributed Friday’s crypto market slide to Trump’s slump on Polymarket: The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has dropped 4.4% in the past 24 hours.
Polymarket is fundamentally a betting market place where users can buy “shares” in the outcome of any prediction, winning $1 per share if the outcome occurs. If a Yes share for an event costs $0.60, the market interprets this as a 60% chance of the event occurring.
The odds are dynamic, changing with each trade. Polymarket works on a blockchain-based order book that lists all the buy (bid) and sell (ask) orders for shares in an outcome, similar to how any asset exchange works.
The market's relatively low liquidity can induce wild swings in prices, with one large purchase briefly driving Trump shares up to 99% last week.
The increase in the price for Harris’ shares could reflect traders buying them as a hedge on their Trump bets, market observers say, as some allege reports of voting irregularities pitted against Trump that could influence market bets. The change may also reflect results from traditional polls, with three new surveys showing Harris leading Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Winsconsin, Newsweek reported Friday. Trump needs to win at least one of those to gain the White House, Newsweek said.