IMF’s GDP Forecast of 2030 GDP by Country
In this article, we will discuss the 30 growing economies according to the IMF's GDP forecast for 2030 by country. If you want to skip our detailed analysis, you can go directly to IMF's GDP Forecast for 2030 by Country: Top 10.
Global Economic Outlook
The global economy continues to recover gradually from the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and high inflation. In retrospect, the global economy has shown remarkable resilience in 2023. Despite the global tensions and increasing climate risks, the overall economic outlook seems positive. The disruption in energy and food markets has had a massive impact on the European economy. Whereas, tightening of global monetary conditions has caused a slowdown in economic progress worldwide. These unprecedented events in global economic development reflect a limping economy, not sprinting. According to the IMF’s October 2023 World Economic Outlook report, global growth is expected to slow down from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% in 2023 and continue a downward trajectory in 2024 to 2.9%. This economic outlook remains well below the historical average from 2000 to 2019 of 3.8%.
Rising headline inflation has been one of the major problems in the past few years. Headline inflation is expected to reach 5.9% in 2023 compared to 9.2% in 2022 and continue to drop to 4.8% in 2024. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, is projected to drop to 4.5% in 2024. As a result, most analysts are projecting a “soft landing” during the second half of 2024. The unemployment forecast for the US is very modest and is expected to record a gradual increase from 3.6% in 2023 to 3.9% by 2025. The US economy is expected to grow 2.1% in 2023 and slowly grow by 1.5% in 2024.
The growth in emerging and developing Asia is projected to increase from 4.5% in 2022 to 5.2% in 2023, and then decline to 4.8% in 2024. The two largest economies in Asia, China and India, are on track to be the world’s largest economies by 2030. India seems to grow at a steady rate compared to China. As per the forecast, China is projected to have a growth rate of 5% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024. India is expected to have a growth rate of 6.3% in both 2023 and 2024. India is also on the list of one of the fastest growing economies according to the World Bank's GDP forecast for 2025. The growth in Europe is expected to grow to 2.4% in 2023, before declining to 2.2% in 2024. Growth in Europe is mainly impacted by slow development in the Euro area and the vast consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war. The Latin America and the Caribbean region is projected to see growth decline from 4.2% in 2022 to 2.3% in both 2023 and 2024. In the Middle East and Central Asia, the growth rate is expected to plunge from 5.6% in 2022 to 2% in 2023, before rising to 3.4% in 2024. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to record a growth decline of 3.3% in 2023, before improving the growth rate to 4% in 2024.
Businesses in Growing Countries
The economies that are making strong progress are backed by some of the largest companies in the world. Reliance Industries Limited (NSE:RELIANCE), Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA), and Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) are some of the leading companies operating out of the largest economies.
Reliance Industries Limited (NSE:RELIANCE) is the largest corporation in India. The company has multiple subsidiaries operating in different industries and plays a vital role in the Indian economy. On December 1, Reliance Industries Limited (NSE:RELIANCE) announced that its telecom subsidiary Jio and TM Forum are collaborating for the first TM Forum Innovation Hub in Mumbai, India. The Innovation Hub will focus on enhancing applications for Generative AI, Large Language Models (LLM), and Open Digital Architecture to create use cases for the telecom industry. On December 29, Reliance Industries Limited (NSE:RELIANCE) announced that it became the first Indian firm to chemically recycle plastic waste-based pyrolysis oil into International Sustainability & Carbon Certification (ISCC)-Plus certified Circular Polymers. This development shows the company’s commitment to reducing plastic waste and supporting the circular economy in India.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) is one of the leading e-commerce firms in the world. The Chinese e-commerce platform is one of the largest wholesale marketplaces on the internet. Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has a global impact on the e-commerce economy. On November 27, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) announced that it joined the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). WBCSD is a group of over 200 of the world’s leading sustainable businesses. The main purpose of Alibaba Group Holding Limited’s (NYSE:BABA) collaboration with WBCSD is to find innovative ways to leverage the company’s platform for broad decarbonization. Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) will also work on the Avoided Emissions framework and methodologies with WBCSD.
Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is one of the largest US companies and continues to top the Fortune 500 list for the 11th year in a row. The company continues to report the highest revenues among global corporations each year to make it to the top spot on the Fortune 500 list. On November 16, Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) reported its third-quarter results for the fiscal year 2024. The company posted earnings per share of $1.53, surpassing consensus estimates by $0.01. Walmart Inc.’s (NYSE:WMT) revenue of $160.8 billion for Q3 2024 topped market estimates by $2.26 billion. Here are some of the comments from earnings call of Q3 2024:
“Our value proposition continues to resonate with customers, helping us gain share and drive e-commerce growth. We're on track to grow adjusted operating income at a faster rate than sales for the year, consistent with what we discussed at our investor meeting earlier this year. We had strong revenue growth for the quarter across each of our segments. Comp sales for Walmart U.S. were 4.9% and 3.8% for Sam's Club U.S. Sales for Walmart International were up 5.4% in constant currency, led by Walmex and China. Sam's Club continues to perform well both in Mexico and China, and while strength was broad-based for Walmex.”
These are a few companies from some of the leading economies. Now, let’s take a look at the list of growing economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
IMF's GDP Forecast of 2030 GDP by Country
Our Methodology
To compile or list the countries based on the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030, first, we shortlisted the countries with the highest forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2028 from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) GDP (PPP) database. As the IMF forecasted data is available till 2028, we had to find the forecasted GDP (PPP) of countries for 2030. We had the real GDP growth rate forecasts for 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028. To find the real GDP growth rates for 2029 and 2030, we took the average of real GDP growth rates from 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028. Then using the forecasted average real GDP growth rates for 2029 and 2028, we calculated the forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2029 and 2030. We have ranked the countries based on the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030 in ascending order of their GDP (PPP).
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IMF's GDP Forecast of 2030 GDP by Country
30. Argentina
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $1.66 Trillion
Argentina is one of the largest economies in the world. In 2023, the GDP of the country stood at $1.24 trillion. The country’s GDP is projected to reach $1.66 trillion by 2030. Argentina is placed 30th among the growing countries according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
29. Malaysia
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $1.80 Trillion
Malaysia is one of the largest economies in Asia having a GDP of $1.23 trillion in 2023. Malaysia’s GDP is projected to reach $1.80 trillion by 2030 and ranks among the growing economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
28. Nigeria
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $1.86 Trillion
Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa and has a GDP of $1.37 trillion. Nigeria’s forecasted GDP for 2030 is $1.86 trillion and is one of the growing economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
27. Philippines
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $2.14 Trillion
The Philippines is one of the emerging economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030. In 2023, the country has a GDP of $1.28 trillion. The Philippines’ forecasted GDP for 2030 is $2.14 trillion. The Philippines is placed 27th among the growing countries according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
26. Thailand
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $2.15 Trillion
Thailand is one of the largest economies in Asia having a GDP of $1.58 trillion in 2023. Thailand’s GDP is projected to reach $2.15 trillion by 2030 and ranks among the growing countries according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
25. Australia
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $2.18 Trillion
Australia is one of the emerging economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030. Australia has a GDP of $1.72 trillion in 2023 and has a forecasted GDP of $2.18 trillion by 2030.
24. Iran
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $2.20 Trillion
Iran has emerged as a strong economy in the region despite international sanctions. In 2023, the country has a GDP of $1.73 trillion. Iran’s forecasted GDP for 2030 is $2.20 trillion. Iran is placed 24th among the growing economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
23. Taiwan
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $2.22 Trillion
Taiwan is a small state with a strong economy. The country has a GDP of $1.69 trillion in 2023. Taiwan’s forecasted GDP for 2030 is $2.22 trillion. Taiwan ranks among the growing economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
22. Pakistan
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $2.30 Trillion
Pakistan's economy is struggling but it has the potential to become one of the leading economies in the world. In 2023, Pakistan’s GDP stood at $1.57 trillion and is projected to reach $2.30 trillion by 2030. Ranked 22nd on our list, Pakistan is one of the emerging economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
21. Poland
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $2.33 Trillion
Poland is one of the largest economies in Europe having a GDP of $1.71 trillion, as of 2023. Poland’s GDP is projected to reach $2.33 trillion by 2030 and ranks among the growing countries according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
20. Vietnam
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $2.48 Trillion
Vietnam is one of the largest economies in Asia and has a GDP of $1.43 trillion in 2023. Vietnam’s GDP is projected to reach $2.48 trillion by 2030 and ranks among the growing economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
19. Bangladesh
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $2.61 Trillion
Bangladesh is one of the emerging economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030. In 2023, the country has a GDP of $1.48 trillion. Bangladesh’s forecasted GDP for 2030 is $2.61 trillion. Bangladesh is ranked 19th among the growing countries according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
18. Egypt
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $2.84 Trillion
Egypt is one of the largest economies in Africa having a GDP of $1.81 trillion, as of 2023. Egypt has a forecasted GDP of $2.84 trillion for 2030 and is one of the emerging economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
17. Canada
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $2.98 Trillion
Canada is one of the largest economies in the world. In 2023, the GDP of the country stood at $2.38 trillion. The country’s GDP is projected to reach $2.98 trillion by 2030. Canada is placed 17th among the growing countries according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
16. Spain
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $3.01 Trillion
Spain is one of the largest economies in Europe and has a GDP of $2.41 trillion in 2023. Spain’s forecasted GDP for 2030 is $3.01 trillion and is one of the growing economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
15. Saudi Arabia
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $3.17 Trillion
Saudi Arabia is one of the fastest-growing economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030. Saudi Arabia has a GDP of $2.25 trillion in 2023 and its GDP is forecasted to reach $3.17 trillion in 2030.
14. South Korea
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $3.75 Trillion
South Korea is one of the strongest economies in the region having a GDP of $2.92 trillion in 2023. By 2030, South Korea’s GDP is projected to reach $3.75 trillion. South Korea is one of the growing economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
13. Italy
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $3.76 Trillion
Italy is one of the largest economies in Europe having a GDP of $3.19 trillion in 2023. Italy’s forecasted GDP for 2030 is $3.76 trillion and is one of the growing economies according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
12. Mexico
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $4.12 Trillion
Mexico is one the largest economies in North America having a GDP of $3.28 trillion in 2023. Mexico’s GDP is forecasted to reach $4.12 trillion by 2030 and ranks among the growing countries according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030.
11. France
Forecasted GDP (PPP) for 2030: $4.75 Trillion
Located in Western Europe, France is one of the largest economies in the world and ranks among the growing countries according to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030. France has a GDP of $3.87 trillion in 2023 and its forecasted GDP for 2030 is $4.75 trillion.
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Disclosure: None. 30 Growing Economies According to the IMF's GDP Forecast for 2030 by Country is originally published on Insider Monkey.