Jim Rogers’s Latest Predictions and Investments
In this piece, we will take a look at Jim Rogers's latest predictions and investments. If you want to see more predictions and investments in this selection, check out Jim Rogers's 5 Latest Predictions and Investments.
The stock market has been on an impressive run, depicted by the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 posting double-digit gains and recouping all the losses accrued last year. The remarkable run comes after the market suffered a bear run in 2022 fueled by inflationary pressures, deteriorating economic conditions, and Federal Reserve's aggressive push to hike interest rates. According to legendary investor Jim Rogers who co-founded Quantum Fund with George Soros, investors should be extremely cautious as the next downturn could be more painful.
While the market appears to be in a bull run, everything always comes to an end, as equities cannot move up forever. The fact that the current bull run appears to be fueled by a small clique of tech giants, including Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL), NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), also raises serious concerns about the sustainability of the bull run.
One of the factors likely to trigger a correction into the bear territory is the extreme debt levels. According to the legendary investor, too much debt does not bode well with investors.
"[In] 2008, we had a bear market because of too much debt," he said. "Look out the window since 2008, debt everywhere has skyrocketed,” said Rogers in an interview with real Vision
While not as popular as George Soros, Jim Rogers rose to prominence as he helped steer Quantum Fund into generating 4,200% returns between 1973 and 1980 outperforming S&P 500's 47% gains. He retired at the age of 37 after making so much money that he would never need to work again. After parting ways with Soros in 1980, Rogers spent most of his time travelling on a motorcycle around the world covering over 160,000 km over six contents.
After retiring with abundant wealth, he pursued diverse interests, becoming an educator, traveling the world, and authoring several best-selling books. Rogers' investment approach involves focusing on specific countries, commodities, or themes he believes hold profit potential. While his current holdings are not publicly disclosed, he has expressed caution in buying new assets and has mentioned owning commodities, particularly gold and silver.
Jim Roger’s net worth is believed to stand at about $300 million. He has been investing privately since leaving Quantum Fund in 1980 but does not disclose his holdings. Despite being out of the limelight for many years his experience and insights about the markets is always looked upon. Jim Rogers, often dubbed the Indiana Jones of the investing world, has a penchant for globetrotting in search of cost-effective investment opportunities.
Rogers, now living in Singapore with his family, made it clear that he was not buying anything as he expects bad times at the start of the year. According to the legendary investor, the next bear market will be the worst in the lifetime, exacerbated by debt that has increased too much over the past 15 years. The remarks draw up parrels to the economic conditions leading up to the devastating 2009 financial crisis.
To support the predictions, the 80-year-old investors draw parallels from the inflationary crisis of 1980. Following that crisis, policymakers pursued a vigorous tightening of monetary policy, implementing substantial interest rate hikes, raising them to 21%, and pushing treasury yields to astronomical levels in an effort to counter high inflation. The outcome was the United States economy being thrust into a recession, causing significant turmoil in the stock market.
With the scenario unfolding in today’s financial markets, investors ought to be extremely cautious even as the market appears to be in a strong uptrend. Rogers is already predicting trouble across all the markets, from property to stocks to bonds and currencies.
Jim Rogers' warning of a bear market cannot be taken lightly, given his experience in leveraging market volatility as his advantage. In partnership with George Soros, he founded Quantum Funds in 1973 and navigated the fund through multiple market downturns and economic crises.
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Rogers believes it is high time investors and individuals remain vigilant and assess the risk exposure. The high debt levels and resemblance to previous crises should always be a stark reminder that market conditions can deteriorate instantly. Likewise, we have compiled Rogers biggest predictions and investment ideas from multiple sources.
10. Biggest Bear Market Run of a lifetime
Prediction: June 2022
Best known for his contrarian investment strategy that emphasizes long-term trends, Rogers believes the world is staring at the ferocious bear run of a lifetime. In June of 2022 Rogers made that claim that the prevailing economic conditions resembled the period leading to the great financial crisis of 2008.
Unlike in the past crisis, the current situation is exacerbated by extreme debt levels following the massive stimulus packages at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The debt levels have already fueled a stubborn inflationary pressure that refuses to go away. With the FED insisting on hiking interest rates until inflation tanks below 2%, it spells more doom for an economy trying to bounce back from the COVID-19-fueled slowdown.
“Since 2008, the debt everywhere has skyrocketed. Gigantic increases in debt … So, I think it’s a simple statement that the next bear market will be the worst in my lifetime. Because the debt has gone up by such staggering amounts in the past 14 years,” Jim Rogers said in a statement.
9. Governments Exacerbate Crypto Risks
Prediction: August 2022
According to the legendary investor, the biggest risk to cryptocurrencies is the government. The government wants to control everything, so they will always do everything within its power to ensure cryptocurrencies don’t succeed. In August of 2022, Rogers reiterated that he will not invest in crypto even though his wife was a big fan and had invested in then.
“If and when all our money is on our computer, it’s going to be government money,” he said in a recent interview with Bloomberg Crypto. “That’s not the way bureaucrats think. That’s not the way politicians think. They want control. They want to regulate everything.”
Rogers does not expect the world to convert to Bitcoin or adopt cryptocurrencies as it has been touted in many circles. Even though digital assets live in the computer, it will always be government computer money, given the kind of regulations always in play.
The remarks echo the stringent regulatory scrutiny that has seen many governments try to curtail the mining and trading of cryptocurrencies. China has been at the forefront of regulations significantly hurting cryptos' sentiments and prospects.
Likewise, the governments have sought to foster the development of central bank-powered decentralized cryptocurrencies that they will always be in a position to control, unlike normal cryptocurrencies.
8. Inflation Will Persist for Long
Prediction: September 2022
The US Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates at the fastest pace to highs of 5.5%. In the process, they have succeeded in pushing inflation from four-decade highs of 9.2% to about 3%. In September if last year Rogers reiterated inflationary pressures are far from over, even as the FED embarked on aggressive monetary tightening.
According to Rogers inflation problem will only go away partially because governments have printed so much money in recent years. Therefore, even if it has come down significantly, it still needs to be finished.
The legendary investor has warned that a move by the central banks to hike interest rates in the race to address the inflation problem could end up being catastrophic. For starters, it could be the trigger that will end up tipping the economy into recession.
7. Recession is Inevitable and going to be Bad
Prediction: October 2022
Due to the high inflation environment, the economy will not avoid recession, according to Jim Rogers. The fact that it has been the longest time in history that the US has struggled with serious problems heightens the prospect of the economy plunging into recession.
While the recession might have already started, according to Rogers, it’s not been bad because there have been some good things along the way. However, things are likely to turn out for the worst as debt has gone up so much over the past 15 years.
6. Agriculture Key to Fighting Inflation and Recession
Prediction: October 2022
While the focus has been on emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and cryptocurrencies, Rogers insists that agriculture will always be key. While agriculture might not seem as exciting as revolutionary technologies, it will always be an essential part of the economy and society.
Therefore, Rogers believes agriculture is yet to gain the traction it deserves in the global economy, therefore, providing interesting and significant investment opportunities.
"Agriculture has been a disaster for years," he said. "And usually, if you buy a disaster, things turn out OK."
Given the consistent demand for food, even on soaring inflation or recession, agriculture will always provide opportunities for growth and diversification of investment portfolios. In addition, rogers believe investors should always pay close watch to housing since food and shelter are part of basic human needs.
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Disclosure: None. Jim Rogers's Latest Predictions and Investments is originally published on Insider Monkey.