Stocks are flat. Earnings news is driving individual stocks. Wall Street is waiting on Fed Chairman Powell's speech tomorrow as part of the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

Following a slight pullback in the stock market, insider sentiment, as measured by Vickers Stock Research, has improved a bit in the past week. On the NYSE, which has seen heightened bearish insider sentiment in recent weeks, the One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio has improved to 2.97 from the prior week's 5.99, leading the eight-week reading to improve to 4.24 from 4.36. While short-term readings were stable on the Nasdaq, with the One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio coming in at 2.61 compared to 2.66 last week, the Nasdaq eight-week reading still improved to 3.44 from the prior 3.88.

March 4, 2024 Monday Tee Up: Jobs, Powell, COST

Monday Tee Up: Let the Shopping Begin

Last week, we noted that corporate insiders were responding to ongoing weakness in stocks with a growing sense of opportunity, this as expressed in weekly data from Vickers Stock Research. This week, the song remains the same: stocks continue what appears to be an orderly but noticeable pullback and insiders continue to respond by buying the falling shares - especially at companies that list on the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning as investors awaited new developments in the debt ceiling negotiations in Washington. President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy are expected to meet later today, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated that the U.S. faced a June 1 deadline for avoiding default. In corporate news, Micron Technology fell 3% after the Chinese government banned the import of the company's memory chips into China on cybersecurity grounds. Meta Platforms shares rose 2% despite a $1.3 billion fine from the European Union for privacy violations and the unlawful transfer of EU user data to the U.S. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $71.50 per barrel while gold fell $6 to $1976 per ounce.

Recession on Hold: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

Stocks fell in volatile trading on Tuesday morning amid more hawkish interest rate comments from Fed officials and continued uncertainty about the impact of anti-government protests in China. On the housing front, CoreLogic Case Shiller said that its national home price index fell 0.8% from the prior month in September, as high mortgage rates weighed on demand. However, prices were still up by 10.6% from the prior year. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil rose slightly to $78 per barrel, while gold rose $11 to $1766 per ounce.

Stocks rallied on Wednesday morning on signs of moderating inflation. The Labor Department said that its consumer price index rose 8.5% on a year-over-year basis in July, down from 9.1% in June with help from lower gasoline prices, and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 8.7%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose at a 5.9% rate, unchanged from the June reading. The Dow rose 1.4%, the S&P 1.5%, and the Nasdaq 2.5%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $88 per barrel, while gold traded near $1813 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes. With recession fears mounting, investors will be looking closely at the comments of Fed officials on inflation and the pace of interest rate hikes. Durable goods orders were weaker than expected. The Commerce Department said that orders for durable goods rose 0.4% in April, down from 0.6% in March and below the consensus estimate of 0.6% growth. Orders for core capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.3%, down from 1.1% growth in March and also below consensus. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose slightly to $110 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $1849 per ounce.

Current Correction Similar to Past Near-Bear Phases, not Classic Bear Markets

Stocks fell on Thursday morning following earnings reports from major tech companies and new weekly employment data. Cisco shares fell more than 8% after the company warned of supply-chain disruptions and projected below-consensus fiscal 2Q22 revenue. On the positive side, Nvidia shares jumped more than 9% following much better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil fell to $78 per barrel, while gold traded near $1862 per ounce.

Year-to-date sector leadership remains with the rotation favorites of early 2021. With the long bond spiking from 0.9% at year-end 2020 to 1.75% by the end of the first quarter, growth favorites retreated. But investors wanted to remain invested in equities in a reopening economy, and rotational favorites filled the void.

The stock market was volatile last week as inflation concerns whipsawed stocks, ultimately pushing them lower on the week. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 361 points, or 1.06%. The S&P 500 was up 1.49%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.32%. For the week, the DJIA was down 397 points, or 1.14%, the S&P 500 was down 1.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.34%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 12.34%, the S&P 500 is up 11.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 4.20%.

Insider sentiment continues to suggest a reasonable degree of caution. As we have said for several weeks now, this caution does not mean that a major correction is bound to occur. But it does suggest that there are few near-term catalysts that insiders see as likely to drive stock prices (around all-time highs already) quickly higher.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and are now coming in from 4Q20. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, according to Vickers.

Our recent commentaries about insider sentiment, which have been based on proprietary sentiment measurements from Vickers Stock Research, have noted growing caution among corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners. We've discussed pent-up selling demand after earnings season, when insiders are broadly prohibited from trading; hedging in an environment that features a pandemic and extreme political developments in the U.S.; and insiders taking profits off the table (as they almost always do) when stock prices flirt with all-time highs.

While nothing seems normal these days, the current dataset from Vickers Stock Research indicates a neutrality in insider sentiment that is entirely appropriate and expected as summer winds down. Dare we say it, even with all the uncertainties of the day, corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners seem little inclined to worry. Of course, hand-in-hand with that premise, this same group seems unable to find opportunities as well.

While nothing seems normal these days, the current dataset from Vickers Stock Research indicates a neutrality in insider sentiment that is entirely appropriate and expected as summer winds down. Dare we say it, even with all the uncertainties of the day, corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners seem little inclined to worry. Of course, hand-in-hand with that premise, this same group seems unable to find opportunities as well.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and are just now coming in from 2Q20. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and are just now coming in from 2Q20. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday afternoon amid more weak employment data. First-time jobless claims rose to 1.416 million in the week ended July 18, above the consensus forecast and the first increase since March 28. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, totaled 16.197 million, below the consensus of 17.1 million and down from the prior week. The employment data came as the government's extended $600 per week unemployment benefit was set to expire at the end of the month. Republicans have proposed reducing the $600 payment, but will face strong opposition from House Democrats, who in May approved a new $3 trillion aid package that included extended unemployment benefits. The Dow fell 1.31%, the S&P 1.23%, and the Nasdaq 2.29%. Crude oil fell 1.5% to $41 per barrel, while gold rose $18 to $1884 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday afternoon amid more weak employment data. First-time jobless claims rose to 1.416 million in the week ended July 18, above the consensus forecast and the first increase since March 28. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, totaled 16.197 million, below the consensus of 17.1 million and down from the prior week. The employment data came as the government's extended $600 per week unemployment benefit was set to expire at the end of the month. Republicans have proposed reducing the $600 payment, but will face strong opposition from House Democrats, who in May approved a new $3 trillion aid package that included extended unemployment benefits. The Dow fell 1.31%, the S&P 1.23%, and the Nasdaq 2.29%. Crude oil fell 1.5% to $41 per barrel, while gold rose $18 to $1884 per ounce.

Stocks are rebounding on Tuesday morning following the market's worst day since 1987. The Senate is meeting to discuss an economic stimulus package, and the Fed announced a new commercial paper funding facility to provide financing help for companies during the pandemic. Industries trading higher today include Internet & Direct Marketing Retail, Household Products, and Multiline Retail. Industries trading lower today include Airlines, Energy Equipment & Services, and Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure. The VIX is up 1.47 at 84.16 after closing yesterday at 82.69. The Dow rose 2.2%, the S&P 4.6%, and the Nasdaq 4.1%. Crude oil rose 1% to $29 per barrel, while gold rose $16 to $1502 per ounce.

Stocks are rebounding on Tuesday morning following the market's worst day since 1987. The Senate is meeting to discuss an economic stimulus package, and the Fed announced a new commercial paper funding facility to provide financing help for companies during the pandemic. Industries trading higher today include Internet & Direct Marketing Retail, Household Products, and Multiline Retail. Industries trading lower today include Airlines, Energy Equipment & Services, and Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure. The VIX is up 1.47 at 84.16 after closing yesterday at 82.69. The Dow rose 2.2%, the S&P 4.6%, and the Nasdaq 4.1%. Crude oil rose 1% to $29 per barrel, while gold rose $16 to $1502 per ounce.

Key Investment Themes for 2020

Key Investment Themes for 2020

While nothing seems normal these days, the current dataset from Vickers Stock Research indicates a neutrality in insider sentiment that is entirely appropriate and expected as summer winds down. Dare we say it, even with all the uncertainties of the day, corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners seem little inclined to worry. Of course, hand-in-hand with that premise, this same group seems unable to find opportunities as well.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and are just now coming in from 2Q20. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday afternoon amid more weak employment data. First-time jobless claims rose to 1.416 million in the week ended July 18, above the consensus forecast and the first increase since March 28. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, totaled 16.197 million, below the consensus of 17.1 million and down from the prior week. The employment data came as the government's extended $600 per week unemployment benefit was set to expire at the end of the month. Republicans have proposed reducing the $600 payment, but will face strong opposition from House Democrats, who in May approved a new $3 trillion aid package that included extended unemployment benefits. The Dow fell 1.31%, the S&P 1.23%, and the Nasdaq 2.29%. Crude oil fell 1.5% to $41 per barrel, while gold rose $18 to $1884 per ounce.

Stocks are rebounding on Tuesday morning following the market's worst day since 1987. The Senate is meeting to discuss an economic stimulus package, and the Fed announced a new commercial paper funding facility to provide financing help for companies during the pandemic. Industries trading higher today include Internet & Direct Marketing Retail, Household Products, and Multiline Retail. Industries trading lower today include Airlines, Energy Equipment & Services, and Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure. The VIX is up 1.47 at 84.16 after closing yesterday at 82.69. The Dow rose 2.2%, the S&P 4.6%, and the Nasdaq 4.1%. Crude oil rose 1% to $29 per barrel, while gold rose $16 to $1502 per ounce.

Key Investment Themes for 2020

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as a sharp decline in consumer confidence offset positive signs on trade, including a decision by China to waive tariffs on some U.S. soybean imports. The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index fell to 125.1 in September, down from a revised 134.2 in August and well below the Reuters consensus forecast of 133.5. The decline was the sharpest in nine months. The Dow and the S&P rose 0.2%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil fell 1.5% to about $58 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1531 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as a sharp decline in consumer confidence offset positive signs on trade, including a decision by China to waive tariffs on some U.S. soybean imports. The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index fell to 125.1 in September, down from a revised 134.2 in August and well below the Reuters consensus forecast of 133.5. The decline was the sharpest in nine months. The Dow and the S&P rose 0.2%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil fell 1.5% to about $58 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1531 per ounce.

Stocks wrapped a positive week on June 7 with a 'bad news is good news' rally. The bad news was a puny 75K gain in May nonfarm payrolls, and jobs shaved off April and March. The corollary goods news was a (perceived) increased likelihood that the Fed will reverse course and cut rates, perhaps as soon as this summer.

Stocks wrapped a positive week on June 7 with a 'bad news is good news' rally. The bad news was a puny 75K gain in May nonfarm payrolls, and jobs shaved off April and March. The corollary goods news was a (perceived) increased likelihood that the Fed will reverse course and cut rates, perhaps as soon as this summer.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning amid new consumer price data that showed muted inflation. The Labor Department said that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose just 0.1% in February, down from 0.2% in January and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.2% growth. The core CPI also rose 2.1% from the prior year. The S&P and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%, while the Dow, weighed down by Boeing, fell 0.2%. Crude oil rose slightly to about $57 per barrel, while gold traded near $1298 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning amid new consumer price data that showed muted inflation. The Labor Department said that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose just 0.1% in February, down from 0.2% in January and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.2% growth. The core CPI also rose 2.1% from the prior year. The S&P and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%, while the Dow, weighed down by Boeing, fell 0.2%. Crude oil rose slightly to about $57 per barrel, while gold traded near $1298 per ounce.

Merriam Webster defines 'screaming' as something that is 'so striking or conspicuous as to attract notice.' That mostly works...but in truth may be a tad weak as a description of current insider sentiment.

Merriam Webster defines 'screaming' as something that is 'so striking or conspicuous as to attract notice.' That mostly works...but in truth may be a tad weak as a description of current insider sentiment.

Merriam Webster defines 'screaming' as something that is 'so striking or conspicuous as to attract notice.' That mostly works...but in truth may be a tad weak as a description of current insider sentiment.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as a sharp decline in consumer confidence offset positive signs on trade, including a decision by China to waive tariffs on some U.S. soybean imports. The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index fell to 125.1 in September, down from a revised 134.2 in August and well below the Reuters consensus forecast of 133.5. The decline was the sharpest in nine months. The Dow and the S&P rose 0.2%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil fell 1.5% to about $58 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1531 per ounce.

Stocks wrapped a positive week on June 7 with a 'bad news is good news' rally. The bad news was a puny 75K gain in May nonfarm payrolls, and jobs shaved off April and March. The corollary goods news was a (perceived) increased likelihood that the Fed will reverse course and cut rates, perhaps as soon as this summer.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning amid new consumer price data that showed muted inflation. The Labor Department said that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose just 0.1% in February, down from 0.2% in January and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.2% growth. The core CPI also rose 2.1% from the prior year. The S&P and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%, while the Dow, weighed down by Boeing, fell 0.2%. Crude oil rose slightly to about $57 per barrel, while gold traded near $1298 per ounce.

Merriam Webster defines 'screaming' as something that is 'so striking or conspicuous as to attract notice.' That mostly works...but in truth may be a tad weak as a description of current insider sentiment.