Monday Tee Up: Here Comes Walmart The focus this week flips back to inflation and the state of the consumer. Key inflation data will come out as will perhaps the most-telling earnings report related to the consumer -- Walmart. Wall Street is wondering if the Fed has been right on interest rates and can still achieve a soft landing and avoid recession. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 0.6%, the S&P 500 lost 0.4%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Year to date, the Dow is higher by 5%, the S&P is up 12%, and the Nasdaq is higher by 12%. On the economic calendar, the big day is Wednesday, when inflation data comes out in the form of CPI. In June, CPI posted at 3.0%. Core CPI was 3.1%. We see July matching those rates. On Tuesday, wholesale inflation will grab the headlines when PPI is updated. On Thursday, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization all will be released, and on Friday, Consumer Sentiment and Housing Starts come out. The earnings calendar is winding down but some big releases are due in this week. On Tuesday, Home Depot and On Holding report. On Wednesday, Cisco and UBS Group. And on Thursday, Walmart, Applied Materials, Alibaba, and Deere. Earnings are coming in 12.4% higher this quarter than a year ago (this after some 91% of S&P 500 companies have reported). Expectations were for 8%-12% earnings growth for 2Q. This follows 8% growth in 1Q and 10% in 4Q23. Last week, mortgage rates fell a big 26 basis points (bps) to 6.47% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices fell four cents to $3.45 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 3Q and calls for expansion of 2.9%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator forecasts 2.74% for August CPI. Looking ahead, the next Fed rate decision is on September 18, with odds at 100% for a rate cut. Of that, 51% expect a 25-bps cut and 49% expect a 50-bps cut. That data is according to the CME FedWatch Tool. There are then two more Fed rate meetings this year, on November 7, two days after the U.S. presidential election, and December 18.

At midday Thursday, the major benchmarks are hugging the flat line. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note is also flat at around 4.36%. Crude oil is up 1% at around $79 per barrel, while Bitcoin is up 1.6% to around $65,800. Weekly unemployment claims fell 10,000 to 232,000, according to the Department of Labor. This follows last week's claims that were at the highest level since last August. This data is seen as a proxy for layoffs and is an indicator of the state of the labor market. The average number of weekly claims over the past decade is 375,000. This week's claims number brings the four-week average up to 217,750. Bigger picture, the April Jobs report did show signs that the labor market is cooling. That is what the Fed is hoping will happen.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning following the January jobs report. In January, nonfarm payroll employment rose 353,000 and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. The jobs count is up from 216,000 in December and well ahead of the expected 185,000, and the belief had been that unemployment would inch up to 3.8%. The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Dow was nearly flat and the Nasdaq gained 1.5%. Crude oil traded just above $72 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $2053 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning following strong earnings from Amazon and generally positive inflation data. The Commerce Department said that its personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, rose 3.4% from the prior year in September, in line with the revised reading for August and the Bloomberg consensus forecast. Excluding food and energy prices, the core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose 3.7%, down slightly from 3.8% in August and also in line with consensus. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. Crude oil rose to $84 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1992 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports and awaited key inflation data later this week. Tyson Foods shares fell more than 6% after the company posted weak fiscal 3Q sales and earnings and announced that it would close four poultry plants. On the positive side, Berkshire Hathaway shares rose 3% on a 6% increase in second-quarter income, helped by higher investment income and strength in the company's insurance holdings. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil fell more than 1% to $82 per barrel while gold traded near $1969 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 1Q23. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past year with high-profile investments into blue-chip companies such as FedEx Inc. and Union Pacific. Based on Vickers data, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

Stocks rose modestly on Friday morning, extending Thursday's rally. Exxon shares rose after the company reported strong 1Q earnings that topped the consensus forecast, though sales were down from the prior year. Chevron also posted strong earnings, helped by growth in its refining business. Amazon shares fell, despite strong first-quarter results, on concerns about slowing growth in the company's cloud business. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $76.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1999 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday as investors weighed new inflation, employment, and housing market data. Producer prices rose more than expected, raising concerns about continued aggressive rate hikes, while weak housing starts and building permits showed the impact of high mortgage rates. Meanwhile, weekly unemployment claims pointed to a still strong labor market. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to 194,000 for the week ended February 11, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 200,000. The Dow fell 1.26%, the S&P 1.38%, and the Nasdaq 1.78%. Crude oil traded near $78 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1848 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning as investors weighed earnings reports from Microsoft, Boeing, and AT&T. Microsoft shares fell after the company posted mixed results and offered disappointing sales guidance for the current quarter, driven in part by a slowdown in the Azure cloud services business. On the positive side, AT&T shares rose 5% following better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and strong growth in wireless subscribers. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil rose 1% to $81 per barrel, while gold traded near $1935 per ounce.

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This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

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In this edition, E&C Firms Building Bridges, Culture Differentiates Danaher, U.S. Cannabis Prohibition Set to Ease, and Tesla, Fortune Brands Home & Security, and Veeva Systems Class A

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

In the eight weeks before the start of earnings season, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research was consistently positive. On a scale where any reading below 2.00 is bullish, Vickers' Total One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio never got higher than 1.99 and was as low as 1.06. That resulted in a peak bullish Total Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio of 1.71 on October 15, just as the earnings onslaught began.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Despite more signs of moderating inflation, stocks gave up most of their early gains on Thursday. The Labor Department reported an unexpected 0.5% decline in the July producer price index, the first negative reading since April 2020 at the onset of the pandemic. The data followed a positive reading on consumer prices on Wednesday, and raised prospects for more modest Fed rate hikes at upcoming meetings. On the employment front, new weekly claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 14,000 to 262,000, just below the consensus forecast. Continuing claims also rose slightly from the prior week. The Dow rose 0.08%, the S&P fell 0.07%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.58%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $94 per barrel, while gold fell $10 to $1804 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks gave up early gains on Tuesday morning amid continued concerns about inflation, Fed rate hikes, and lackluster corporate earnings. The slide followed Monday's massive selloff, which sent the S&P below 4,000 for the first time since March 2021. Peloton shares dropped more than 15% after the fitness equipment maker posted a wider-than-expected fiscal 3Q loss, offered disappointing 4Q revenue guidance, and said that it was 'thinly capitalized.' The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $101 per barrel, while gold fell $13 to $1845 per ounce.

Stocks rose strongly on Tuesday morning on signs that at least some Russian troops were pulling back from positions near the Ukrainian border. However, on the economic front, inflation data was again higher than expected. The Labor Department said that its producer price index rose 1.0% in January, above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 0.5% and up from a 0.4% increase in December. The Dow rose 1.2%, the S&P 1.5%, and the Nasdaq 2.1%. Crude oil fell nearly 4% to $92 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $1852 per ounce.

Stocks were mainly flat on Monday morning as investors weighed more 3Q earnings reports and new U.S. manufacturing data. The Institute for Supply Management said that its index of national factory activity fell to 60.8 in October from 61.1 in September amid continued shortages of raw materials and supply-chain disruptions. The Reuters consensus had called for a decline to 60.5. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil rose to more than $84 per barrel, while gold traded near $1796 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as the Senate voted to approve the new $1 trillion infrastructure bill. The Labor Department said that U.S. worker productivity rose at a 2.3% annualized rate in 2Q, down from 4.3% in 1Q and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 3.5% growth. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1728 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning, led by a sharp drop in large Tech stocks. On the economic front, the Commerce Department said that U.S. factory orders rose 1.1% in March, up from a 0.5% decline in February but below the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.3% growth. The Commerce Department also reported that the U.S. trade deficit rose 5.6% to an all-time high of $74.4 billion in March on strong growth in imports. The Dow fell 0.9%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 2.5%. Crude oil traded near $65 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1794 per ounce.

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Stocks fell sharply on Friday morning, led by selloffs in the Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors. Apple shares fell 5%, despite above-consensus earnings, on concerns about weak iPhone sales and declining revenue in China. The company also declined to provide guidance for the current fiscal first quarter. Amazon also posted strong 3Q results but provided disappointing 4Q earnings guidance, sending the shares down about 4%. The Dow fell 1.5%, the S&P 1.8%, and the Nasdaq 2.7%. Crude oil fell to $35.50 per barrel, while gold rose $12 to $1880 per ounce.