Many of the most-prominent economists in the country, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, head to Jackson Hole this week. Meanwhile, a few more key earnings report are due. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2.9%, the S&P 500 gained 3.9%, and the Nasdaq popped 5.3%. Year to date, the DJIA is higher by 8%, the S&P is up 16%, and the Nasdaq is ahead by 17%. On the economic calendar, the schedule is light this week. On Friday, Mr. Powell takes the podium in Jackson Hole. A good amount of data about inflation and labor has hit the tape since he last spoke publicly, so his speech this week should get attention. In related news, the minutes from the Fed's July rate meeting will be out on Wednesday, and Existing Home Sales will be reported on Thursday. The earnings calendar is light, but does include some big reports. On Monday Palo Alto Networks and Estee Lauder will report. On Tuesday, Lowe's, Toll Brothers, and Medtronic. On Wednesday, Target, TJX Companies, Macy's, Analog Devices, and Agilent. And on Thursday, Intuit, Peloton, and CAVA. Earnings are coming in 12.5% higher this quarter than a year ago, this after 93% of S&P 500 companies have reported. Financial and Healthcare are the leading sectors, both up 20% for the quarter compared to the same quarter last year. Materials is on at other end, down 6%. Expectations were for 8%-12% earnings growth in 2Q. Last week, data on inflation continued to show improvement. CPI posted at 2.9% for July compared to 3.0% for June. Core CPI was 3.2% versus 3.3% the month prior. Mortgage rates inched up two basis points (bps) to 6.49% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices fell four cents to $3.41 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 3Q and calls for expansion of 2.0%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator forecasts 2.6% for August CPI. Looking ahead, the next Fed rate decision is on September 18, with odds at 100% for a rate cut. Of that, 75% expect a 25-bps cut and 25% look for a 50-bps cut. There are two more Fed rate meetings this year, the first on November 7 (just after the U.S. presidential election) and the second on December 18. We have adjusted our rate forecast and now expect three rate cuts this year (up from two) for a total of 75 bps. We see two rate cuts in 2025. We expect all the cuts to be 25 bps.

Stocks are nearly flat to down slightly on Friday at midday. The 1Q EPS reporting season is now essentially over and trading in the next few weeks will be driven by inflation and employment data. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell by 0.6% in April to 101.8, after decreasing by 0.3% in March. The decline was driven by consumer sentiment, new orders, and negative yield spread and building permits. Crude oil is trading near $80 per barrel and gold is trading near $2412 per ounce.

We've seen growing evidence of rotation away from mega-cap tech. Indeed, even a textbook 'impressive' beat can lead to a 'sell the news' reaction for these stocks. Betting on more near-term upside from these stocks, no matter what they report, is a tough technical game as they all have extreme 14-day and 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings in the high 70s to mid-80s.

Artificial Intelligence: Overview and Foundational Concepts

Overall insider sentiment, based on proprietary data from Vickers Stock Research, continues to improve - with sentiment from executives at companies that trade on the Nasdaq leading the charge. We are not ready to call for a bullish stampede, as the short-term and long-term readings from Vickers are not yet fully aligned. But they are clearly moving in that direction. Here are some highlights.

Monday Tee Up: Inflation, GDP, Costco

The volume of weekly insider transactions processed by Vickers Stock Research remains exceedingly low, this as the volume of earnings reports remains exceedingly high. Indeed, corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners currently are broadly restricted from trading as the companies they represent are releasing material nonpublic information. This week, some 560 transactions meet the criteria for inclusion in Vickers' Weekly Insider Report, compared to around 1800 fillings before the current restrictions kicked in several weeks ago. The last time weekly transaction volume was this low was in the very early days of 2023, just ahead of the 4Q22 earnings season.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Cracker Barrel Old Country Sto (CBRL); DraftKings Inc. (DKNG); Intel Corp. (INTC); J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) and the Focus List deletions are Restaurant Brands Intl In (QSR); Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST); Expedia Group Inc (EXPE); Fox Corporation (FOXA).

First-Quarter Rally: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

Monday Tee Up: Inflation, GDP, Walmart Earnings

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

On Friday morning, investors will be focused on the Labor Department's October employment report. The current Reuters consensus calls for the addition of 200,000 payroll jobs, down from 263,000 in September, and a slightly higher unemployment rate of 3.6%. Stocks fell sharply on Thursday amid continued concerns about rate hikes and a potential recession, a day after Fed Chairman Powell said that rates at the end of the cycle could be higher than previously expected. The Dow fell 0.46%, the S&P 1.06%, and the Nasdaq 1.73%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $88 per barrel, while gold fell $18 to $1632 per ounce.

The U.S. housing market has been an important contributor to the country's economic recovery from the pandemic, but recent high prices and high interest rates have cooled the market. The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales in July 2022 totaled 4.7 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 28% from the rate at the beginning of the year. The Commerce Department reported that new one-family homes were selling at a 685,000/year pace in August -- down from 831,000 in January. Meanwhile, a leading indicator for the industry, housing permits, has turned lower as well. According to the Census Bureau, permits were being authorized in September at a 1.6 million annual rate, down from 1.9 million in March. Housing prices remain hot. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for July 2022 showed that the average price rose 15% year-over-year. The high prices and high mortgage rates -- the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was recently 6.94%, the highest rate in 20 years -- have boosted housing inventories. Currently there is an 8.1-month supply of existing homes for sale (the typical range is 4.5-7.5 months), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Until pricing pressures ease further, the housing sector will not be supportive of U.S. economic growth.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Director of Research Kelleher typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

In this edition, Australian oil and gas has lots of fuel, streaming services keep flowing along, Asbury Automotive has a good road ahead, and Kone, BlackRock, and Domino's Pizza.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Merck & Co Inc (MRK); Fox Corporation (FOXA); Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG); Target Corp (TGT) and the Focus List deletions are Alphabet Inc (GOOGL); Laboratory Corp. Of America Hl (LH); SVB Financial Group (SIVB); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX).

Recession Fears Grow: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

The stock market got clocked on Thursday, but at least it wasn't as bad as Tuesday. Support from the recent lows held by a whisker for the indices. The S&P 500 shed 1.1% and closed right at the recent low of 3,900. The Nasdaq gave up 1.4% and finished close to its recent low, while the QQQs lost 1.7% and closed just below the low from September 6. For the week (so far), the "500" has lost 4.1%, the Nasdaq has given up 4.6%, and the QQQs have returned 5.2%.

Monday Tee-Up: Inflation, GDP, Retail Earnings, Jackson Hole

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rallied to $95/barrel at midday on Thursday and finished the day near $94. Crude oil could be tracing out a false breakdown after falling to $87 last Friday and breaking below the bottom of its range at $93. WTI ran up to its 21-day exponential and 200-day simple averages on Thursday, and those averages stopped the advance -- at least for now.

Recently, we have detailed some very bullish statistics (sentiment, oversold breadth) for the stock market as well as some very bearish stats (breadth again, price action, the yield curve, and Fed tightening). Believe it or not, this is often the case during a bull or a bear market -- which doesn't make our job easy. It is critical to know the timeframe in play for each indicator, the time it takes to go from one extreme to another, and (obviously) which indicators have worked best in the past. That said, indicators that worked the best in the past offer no guarantee of working well in the future.

We are witnessing some historic market data, which "eventually" should be good. Tuesday was actually a win for technicians, as the indices closed far off their lows as details of the Fed's pending rate decision drew near. The Wall Street Journal ran an article that said 75-basis-point increases are back on the table (which was denied by the Fed not long ago). At its low on the day, the S&P 500 was down to 3,706, a little more than a one-percent loss. That was the lowest level for the index since January of 2021.

While stocks have struggled in 2022, corporate insiders have reacted with increasing optimism -- expressing confidence that historically has come in advance of notable rallies.

Last week, the stock market had its best week since November 2020, breaking its five-week losing streak. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 274 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 rose 1.17%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.05%. For the week, the DJIA was up 1,810 points, or 5.5%, while the S&P 500 was up 6.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 8.18%. Year-to-date, the Dow is down 4.36%; and the S&P 500 is off 6.36%. The Nasdaq Composite extended its relative underperformance and is now down 11.19% year-to-date.

Stocks rose strongly on Wednesday morning, recovering from Tuesday's selloff as investors continued to weigh prospects for accelerated tapering from the Fed and the uncertain impact of the Omicron variant. Employment data was better than expected. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies added 534,000 payroll jobs in November, down from 570,000 in October but above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 525,000. The Dow rose 1.2%, the S&P 1.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil traded near $68 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $1787 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Friday morning, led by the Technology sector, though investors remained concerned about prospects for slower economic growth and the impact of the Delta variant. On the earnings front, Deere posted solid fiscal 3Q results and raised its full-year guidance, though the shares fell on concerns about rising costs and supply-chain issues. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $63 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1785 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Friday morning, led by the Technology sector, though investors remained concerned about prospects for slower economic growth and the impact of the Delta variant. On the earnings front, Deere posted solid fiscal 3Q results and raised its full-year guidance, though the shares fell on concerns about rising costs and supply-chain issues. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $63 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1785 per ounce.

The stock market moved higher last week, with technology stocks outperforming blue chips. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 65 points, or 0.19%. The S&P 500 was up 0.08%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.09%. For the week, the DJIA was up 322 points, or 0.94%, the S&P 500 was up 1.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.06%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 12.82%, the S&P 500 is up 11.93%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 6.68%.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday for a second day, though they pared some of their losses late in the session. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at a Wall Street Journal conference, appeared to trigger the selloff by suggesting that 10-year Treasury yields could rise further, as they have in recent weeks. On the employment front, first-time unemployment benefit claims rose by 9,000 to 745,000, but came in below the consensus estimate, while continuing claims fell to 4.295 million, also slightly below consensus. The data came ahead of the government's February employment report on Friday morning. The Reuters consensus calls for the addition of 182,000 new payroll jobs, up from 49,000 in January. The Dow fell 1.11%, the S&P 1.34%, and the Nasdaq 2.11%. Crude oil rose more than 4% to $64 per barrel, while gold dropped $19 to $1697 per ounce.

Stocks pared early losses and traded near breakeven on Friday morning, as Joe Biden moved closer to winning the presidency, with narrow leads in key swing states. October employment data was stronger than expected. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 638,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in October, above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 580,000 though down from a revised 672,000 in September. The official unemployment rate also fell to 6.9% from 7.9% and was lower than the consensus forecast. The Dow and the S&P were flat, and the Nasdaq was down 0.2%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $37.50 per barrel, while gold rose $6 to $1953 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as investors weighed earnings from Walmart and Kohl's and new housing market data. Walmart topped consensus revenue and earnings estimates in fiscal 2Q, noting that the strong results were boosted by enhanced unemployment benefits and other government aid. Kohl's shares fell more than 15% after the company reported a 2Q loss and warned of a challenging back-to-school season. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said that housing starts rose a strong 22.6% in July to an annualized 1.496 million units, well above the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.24 million. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil traded near $42.50 per barrel, while gold rose $15 to $2014 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as investors weighed earnings from Walmart and Kohl's and new housing market data. Walmart topped consensus revenue and earnings estimates in fiscal 2Q, noting that the strong results were boosted by enhanced unemployment benefits and other government aid. Kohl's shares fell more than 15% after the company reported a 2Q loss and warned of a challenging back-to-school season. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said that housing starts rose a strong 22.6% in July to an annualized 1.496 million units, well above the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.24 million. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil traded near $42.50 per barrel, while gold rose $15 to $2014 per ounce.

Following massive index and sector gains in April, the market calmed a bit -- but still posted very nice follow-through gains in May. While large-cap and Technology names led pretty consistently in April, May also contained a good amount of intra-month rotation from the leaders to the beaten-up laggards. This rounded-out the performance of the indices while the typical sectors continued to lead.

Following massive index and sector gains in April, the market calmed a bit -- but still posted very nice follow-through gains in May. While large-cap and Technology names led pretty consistently in April, May also contained a good amount of intra-month rotation from the leaders to the beaten-up laggards. This rounded-out the performance of the indices while the typical sectors continued to lead.