With all things viewed in context, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research is 'better' this week than in other recent weeks. The sell/buy ratios from Vickers this week are indeed vastly improved over the last few weeks. The NYSE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is now 4.04, a big improvement from 11.00 last week and 11.87 the week before that. On the Nasdaq, the one-week reading is now 3.39 and compares very favorably with a 10.53 result recorded three weeks ago, as the Nasdaq had soured a week before the NYSE. So the trend is good, but, contextually, the ratios are still not clearly bullish - just a lot less bearish. Drilling down, the number of insider sell transactions grew higher still this week, with a 20% increase in sales compared to last week. But, in a positive offset, the number of purchase transactions also popped -- and by 161%. End of day, insiders seem less panicky than they did a few weeks ago - and that that seems to align with the mood of investors in general. But let's not forget that, in context, the S&P 500 closed last week at a level that is still 323 points below where it was in mid-July. On a sector basis, selling by insiders last week was greatest in Healthcare, with shares valued at $127 million sold versus roughly $4 million bought, followed by Information Technology, which saw nearly $90 million of shares sold. Buying outpaced selling in the Energy sector. This week, analysts at Vickers highlighted insider transactions of interest at Stryker Corp. (NYSE: SYK) and Block Inc. (NYSE: SQ).

Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The first-quarter earnings season has crossed the 90% mark and is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a year-over-year gain of almost 7%, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 4%-7% advance expected at the start of the earnings period. Leading the outperformance were strong gains in Communication Services earnings, up 43%, and Consumer Discretionary, up 26%. On the flipside, Healthcare and Energy, both down 24%, are performing the worst. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost outlooks during earnings season, as this is often a signal for momentum in the months ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in the Argus Fundamental Universe of Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 1Q24 EPS reporting season.

In this edition, we assess exposure of some consumer finance banks; Compass Minerals puts its dividend on ice; Humana's stock pitch shows a rare opportunity; and Enel SpA, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Puma.

U.S. stocks rose on Monday morning ahead of the Fed's rate decision, earnings reports and nonfarm payrolls this week. Tesla (TSLA) shares are up on news that CEO Musk is teaming up with Baidu (BIDU) to expand full self-driving (FSD) in China. Shares of SoFi Technologies (SOFI) are down on weak 2Q guidance. The Dow is up 0.2%, the S&P 500 0.2% and the Nasdaq is also up 0.2%. Crude oil is trading above $82 per barrel and gold is up $1 to $2348 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Same, Only Different: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The third-quarter earnings season is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a 6.3% gain, year-over-year, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 1.0% expected at the start of the earnings period, and should be enough to end the "earnings recession" that investors have endured over the past three quarters. Propelling the 3Q outperformance were strong gains in Communication Services, up 46%, while Energy again (like last quarter) is performing the worst, down 33%. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 3Q23 EPS reporting season.

Stocks rose on Tuesday morning following more 3Q earnings reports and new purchasing managers' data. S&P said that its flash composite global PMI, which tracks both manufacturing and services, rose to 51.0 in October, up from a final September reading of 50.2. The manufacturing component rose to the breakeven level of 50, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 49.5 and the highest reading since April. The services PMI rose to 50.9 from 50.1 a month earlier and also topped the consensus estimate. On the earnings front, General Electric and 3M posted strong 3Q results and raised their full-year guidance. General Motors also reported above-consensus sales and earnings, but withdrew its full-year guidance due to the uncertain impact of the UAW strike. The Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq were all up about 0.9%. Crude oil fell to $85 per barrel, while gold traded near $1975 per ounce.

The first-quarter earnings season has passed the halfway mark with 292 (or 58%) of S&P 500 companies having reported results through August 1. An impressive 81% of those companies exceeded earnings expectations, while the blended (actual and still to report) earnings decline is now projected at 5.9%, according to Refinitv. The Consumer Discretionary sector still leads with 36% earnings growth, while Energy is now by far the weakest sector, with a 48% profit decline. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 2Q23 EPS reporting season.

Monday Tee Up: Labor (The Fed's Other Job)

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The first-quarter earnings season is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a 0.6% year-over-year decline, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 5.0% decline expected at the start of the earnings period, though still not enough to avoid a technical earnings recession following 4Q's 3.4% decline. Propelling the 1Q outperformance was a 74% beat rate (versus the long-term average of 62%), with strong gains in Consumer Discretionary (+55%) and Industrials (+26%), but drags from Basic Materials and Utilities (both -22%). Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 1Q23 EPS reporting season.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks were mostly higher on Wednesday morning following earnings from major Tech companies and new manufacturing data. Microsoft shares rose more than 7% after the company posted better-than-expected fiscal 3Q results, driven by strength in its cloud and AI businesses. However, UK regulators blocked the company's planned acquisition of videogame maker Activision Blizzard. Meanwhile, new data showed a sharper-than-expected decline in capital goods orders. The Commerce Department said that orders for core capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.4% in March; the Reuters consensus forecast had called for a smaller decline of 0.1%. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $77 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $2005 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning, a day after rallying following a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Mr. Powell said that the economy was in the 'very early stages of disinflation,' and that the process would take time, largely echoing his comments after the Fed's rate hike last week. On the earnings front, Uber shares rose after the ride-hailing service posted much better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Yum! Brands also rose following strong 4Q sales and earnings. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 1.0%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil rose 1% to $78 per barrel, while gold traded near $1888 per ounce.

As of this writing, there are only 14 trading days left in 2022, and the S&P 500 is down 17.5%, the Nasdaq is off 30%, the Nasdaq 100 has lost 29%, the NYSE has given up 11%, the Dow Industrials are lower by (only) 8%, the S&P 400 has declined 13%, and the Russell 2000 has given back 19%.

Each December, Argus surveys its team of analysts, seeking their best ideas for the upcoming year. The Argus Research team draws on its experience (the average analyst has 18 years of Wall Street experience and 10 year at Argus), as well as the company's proprietary six-point research framework and earnings and valuation models to make the calls. Argus analysts cover the waterfront (every sector from Energy to Healthcare to Consumer to Technology), so each sector is represented. This year's list includes some long-time favorites, as well as some recent upgrades and new initiations. The list includes mostly large-caps and mid-caps, and both growth and value stocks. We will be going over the list in more detail during our January webinar and detailing why each stock has been selected by the covering analyst. In the interim, more information on each of these BUY-rated stocks is available on our website.

Stocks rallied again in November on hopes for lower interest rates, yet remain in a bear market for the year. Bond prices also rose during the month, but, as with stocks, remain lower year-to-date. Looking ahead, our Stock-Bond Barometer model modestly favors bonds over stocks for long-term portfolios. In other words, these asset classes should be near their target weights in diversified portfolios, with a slight tilt toward fixed income, given the rise in yields in 2022. We are now balanced on large- and small-caps. We favor large-caps for growth exposure and financial strength, while small-caps are selling at historical discounts relative to large-caps and offer value. Our recommended exposure to small- and mid-caps is now 15%-17% of equity allocation, in line with the benchmark weighting. U.S. stocks have outperformed global stocks over the trailing one- and five-year periods. We expect this long-term trend to continue, given volatile and often difficult-to-predict global economic, political, geopolitical, and currency conditions. That said, international stocks offer favorable near-term valuations, and we target 5%-10% of equity exposure to the group. Value has outperformed in 2022 due to the negative impact of rising interest rates on growth valuations. Over the longer term, we anticipate that growth, led by the Tech and Healthcare sectors, will top returns from value, led by the Energy and Materials sectors, due to favorable secular and demographic trends.

Last week was the busiest of the quarter for corporate earnings, with a fair number of sharp moves in stock prices following above- or below-consensus results or changes in company guidance. Through October 25, Refinitiv reports that 129 S&P 500 companies have announced earnings, with 74% of those coming in ahead of the EPS consensus. The blended (reported and estimated) growth rate for the full quarter, however, is now at 3.3%. That's down from the 4.5% that was expected at the start of the quarter, which is likely a combination of the magnitude of the earnings misses as well as earnings estimates still coming down for those still scheduled to report. Sectors with the strongest beat rates so far have been Healthcare and Communication Services, where 100% of companies reporting have come in ahead of consensus. The biggest laggard has been Consumer Discretionary, where only 47% have exceeded consensus. Energy dominates, with a 119% blended earnings growth rate versus 3Q21, while Financials are at the other end with a 16% earnings decline. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to strong returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 3Q22 EPS reporting season.

The stock market had a wild ride in the trading week ended Friday, October 21, with a big rally on Monday and early strength Tuesday, before the sellers moved in. Wednesday was a mild down day and Thursday wasn't a big downer -- but some nice early gains were lost. Friday, which has not been a good day for stocks for the past five weeks, helped push the market to a strong finish.

Recent data illustrates to us that key parts of U.S. GDP are still expanding, despite the impact of inflation, the pandemic, and geopolitical developments. But growth is not consistent across all segments of the economy and, after two consecutive negative GDP quarters, the economy may be in a recession. Based on our review of the latest economic fundamentals, our forecast for GDP growth in 2022 is now -0.2%, down from our prior forecast of 0.7%. Our preliminary forecast for 2023 is now 0.7%, down from 1.8%, assuming that economic trends start the year in negative territory but improve as the year goes on. The Fed is combating inflation with aggressive rate hikes, and we look for several more increases at upcoming Fed meetings into 2023. The concern is that the central bank is raising rates too quickly and will send the U.S. economy into recession. If that's the case, we would expect to see the unemployment rate head higher toward 6.0% over the next few quarters. Our estimates differ a bit from consensus. The Federal Reserve is now anticipating GDP growth of 0.2% for 2022, while the IMF is calling for 2022 growth of 2.3%. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters is estimating growth of 1.6% in 2022. The GDPNow Forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is 0.3% for 3Q22.

Stocks plunged to new lows on Thursday, with sharp losses in most sectors. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy contracted at a 0.6% pace in 2Q, unchanged from its previous estimate. Meanwhile, weekly employment data improved, with both initial and continuing unemployment claims coming in below consensus estimates. Carmax shares dropped more than 24% after the company posted much weaker than expected 2Q sales and earnings, citing the impact of inflation on used car sales. Airline stocks also fell sharply on concerns about canceled flights due to Hurricane Ian. The Dow fell 1.54%, the S&P 2.11%, and the Nasdaq 2.84%. Crude oil fell to $81.50 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1669 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.